The catarrhine who invented a perpetual motion machine, by dreaming at night and devouring its own dreams through the day.

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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: January 12th, 2024

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  • I gave the subject a check. From Tom’s Hardware, industry predictions are like:

    Year Capacity (in TB)
    2022 1~22
    2025 2~40
    2028 6~60
    2031 7~75
    2034 8~90
    2037 10~100

    Or, doubling roughly each 4y. Based on that the state of art disks would 500TB roughly in 2040. Make it ~2050 for affordable external storage.

    However note that this is extrapolation over a future estimation, and estimation itself is also an extrapolation over past trends. Might as well guess what I’m going to have for lunch exactly one year for now, it’ll be as accurate as that.

    To complicate things further currently you have competition between two main techs, spinning disks vs. solid state. SSD might be evolving on a different pace, and as your typical SSD has less capacity it might even push the average for customers back a bit (as they swap HDDs with SSDs with slightly lower capacity).


  • In modern language the way language is used and perceived determines its meaning and not its origins.

    This is technically correct but misleading in this context, given that it falsely implies that the original meaning (doubling transistor density every 2y) became obsolete. It did not. Please take context into account. Please.

    Furthermore you’re missing the point. The other comment is not just picking on words, but highlighting that people bring “it’s Moore’s Law” to babble inane predictions about the future. That’s doubly true when people assume (i.e. make shit up) that “doubling every 2y” applies to other things, and/or that it’s predictive in nature instead of just o9bservational. Cue to the OP.



  • My prediction:

    It’ll reach a profitability peak some months from now, then start dropping again. That drop will prompt Reddit Inc. to introduce further changes to the platform, and they’ll get a new profitability peak - smaller than the older one. This pattern will repeat a few times, until the focus is back from “maximising profits” to “cut down the losses”.

    Investors will be pissed and try to find someone to blame, potentially even suing Greedy Pigboy - seeking to get their money back, as the amount that they invested in the platform became nothing. This will fail, but Greedy Pigboy’s reputation will be ruined among investors, just like it is among users.

    In the meantime, users will flee in flocks from the platform. Most of them will go to Discord, with only a handful hitting Lemmy - as by now Lemmy already has its own culture aside from the one of the “leftover” in Reddit. (I expect that “fuck off back to Reddit” will become a common scene here.)

    In the meantime, it’ll be an open secret that the very changes promoting short-term net profit caused long-term losses. Because it’ll be stuff like:

    • Targetted ads further encouraging users to use ad blockers, and to avoid the app altogether.
    • Disruption of the mobile site to “encourage” users to use the app. Some will use it for a while, then ditch it altogether.
    • Making ads less and less distinguishable from genuine content. You click it once by accident, get pissed but give Reddit some money; you do it twice, and you leave.
    • Removing features only used by a small fraction of the userbase - but the fraction differs each time, so users in general get pissed.
    • Removing the ability to customise the old.reddit page of each subreddit with CSS, under some bullshit claim like “someone might abuse it, think on the children!”, but the actual reason will be brand awareness.
    • Introducing changes that, while desirable for larger subreddits, either neglect or outright harm smaller subreddits. Even if the main reason why people stay in Reddit is the smaller subs.
    • Copying features from social media platforms strictu sensu. That’ll promote Reddit in the short term, but in the long term it becomes pointless to stay in Reddit instead of a bigger platform (like Facebook).



  • Then as you ask “provide sources.”, it says simply “Source: Tech Review Websites”. If this came from an actual person I would genuinely ask it “do you take me for gullible trash?”.

    It’s still somewhat useful, due to Google Search crumbling away into nothingness, if you ask “link me five sites with info about [topic]”.









  • As I checked from an article, at least in Mandarin the usage of particles happens alongside the change in intonation, not at the expense of it.

    Also note that even [some? all?] Germanic languages show something similar - but instead of a particle, you get a syntactical movement (verb fronting) overtly marking the question. Examples:

    English German
    This is an apple. Das ist ein Apfel.
    Is this an apple? Ist das ein Apfel?
    The cat meows. Die Katze miaut.
    Does the cat meow? Miaut die Katze?

    In English this is slightly obscured by do-support being obligatory for most verbs, but note how it’s the same process - if you were to insert the “do” without a question, in the third sentence, it would end as “the cat does meow”.


  • I was expecting Mandarin to be an exception, since the language uses pitch to encode different words; apparently it isn’t, the speakers simply “abstract” the phonemic vs. phrasal pitch variations as two different things, when interpreting the sentence. Check figure 6.

    And while there is a particle overtly conveying “this is a question”, ⟨吗⟩ /ma⁰/ (the “0” indicates neutral tone), it seems that you can couple it with an assertive phrasal pitch to convey rhetorical questions. And other languages (like e.g. German and English, that overtly mark questions with verb fronting) show a similar pattern.

    I also found some literature claiming that it might be cross-linguistically consistent

    The most important observations are the following:

    1. pitch tends to decline from the beginning of an IP [intonational phrase] to the end, a tendency known as declination;
    2. the beginning of an IP may be marked by a local sharp rise in pitch or “reset”;
    3. in IPs that are utterance-final and/or in statements, there may be a local drop in pitch at the end of the IP in addition to any overall declination spanning the IP as a whole;
    4. in IPs that are in questions and/or are not utterance-final, declination may be moderated, suspended or even reversed, i.e. the overall trend may be less steeply declining, level, or even slightly rising;
    5. in addition to exhibiting reduced declination, non-final and interrogative IPs may also have a local rise in pitch at the end, or at least have no local drop.

    The validity of these observations, as general tendencies, is not in doubt.

    The article also lays out some potential explanations for this. The basic gist of it is, nobody knows why but everyone has a guess.

    EDIT: as another user (ABCDE) correctly pointed out, keep in mind that this works differently for open-ended vs. yes/no questions.





  • I wish that I had enough drawing skills to do this, but:

    Imagine obese (morbidly so) versions of Mario and Pikachu. Both with blood on their mouths, and faces that strongly remind Goya’s “Saturn Devouring His Son”. Mario holds half of the body of a dead Tanzee (a Palworld pal), and is strongly implied to be eating it; Pikachu does it with the Yuzu logo, or something else.

    There are only three things written in the whole picture.

    • Top right corner: Nintendo’s logo.
    • Centre bottom: “we were starving”, followed by “私たち二人は飢えていました。” (ditto; might as well check the grammar as I don’t speak JP, I used a machine translator).