It would, but Orbán isn’t Hungary. You can’t blackmail Orbán with Hungary, he doesn’t care for it beyond using it as a vehicle of power. Hungary is also in a lot of hardship already, so I doubt some more layoffs would be the breaking point.

The factories wouldn’t close immediately, they are huge. Also, China is also building up in Hungary, and it would continue being an important transit and manufacturing hub between China and the EU, even if it was not part of the EU. It’s still on the shortest path between the Belt and Road connections and Germany, and there is no point in either going the Croatia route over the mountains or through Ukraine and Poland, again through mountains and presently, war. It is also chock full of Chinese battery plants that would continue to sell to the EU, because even without being in the trade union, Hungary has the advantage of not giving a shit about environmental regulations for building such plants.

To be honest, this is why every sane Hungarian wants Ukraine to succeed in defending itself, as if we had a Russian border in Transcarpathia, that’s when shit would get real and Orbán would go full Belarus.