What brings warm winters to Europe is a warm northern Atlantic, and Mediterranean. This can still happen with a slower AMOC, and in fact is at record warmth these past 2 years, and a warm winter for Europe should be expected.
That AMOC may be slower is not stopping significant heat where the gulf stream flows. CO2 is making norther part of oceans hot without the gulf stream being fast, but hotter tropical water moving more slowly can still make for comparable heat dumped north.
The other major change happening last 2 years is that Arctic ocean freezing is thinner than previously. While Arctic ice volume set a major record low this past summer, the volume of meltwater flowing south was pretty steady with recent years, because the winter peak ice volume was also a record low. That winter ice volume is low primarily from ocean heat finding its way up to the Arctic in summer, and less due to extreme summer warm air temperatures.
The actual danger from slow AMOC, that is manifesting these last 2 years, is an extremely hot tropical Atlantic. Heat not moving away as fast as it is generated.
What brings warm winters to Europe is a warm northern Atlantic, and Mediterranean. This can still happen with a slower AMOC, and in fact is at record warmth these past 2 years, and a warm winter for Europe should be expected.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=sstanom&ortho=1&wt=1
That AMOC may be slower is not stopping significant heat where the gulf stream flows. CO2 is making norther part of oceans hot without the gulf stream being fast, but hotter tropical water moving more slowly can still make for comparable heat dumped north.
The other major change happening last 2 years is that Arctic ocean freezing is thinner than previously. While Arctic ice volume set a major record low this past summer, the volume of meltwater flowing south was pretty steady with recent years, because the winter peak ice volume was also a record low. That winter ice volume is low primarily from ocean heat finding its way up to the Arctic in summer, and less due to extreme summer warm air temperatures.
The actual danger from slow AMOC, that is manifesting these last 2 years, is an extremely hot tropical Atlantic. Heat not moving away as fast as it is generated.
Thanks for the clarification. I was feeling pretty defeated reading this earlier today.